Jurnal: Mengenal Data Ekstrim Dan Distribusinya

Ekstrim dapat diartikan sebagai ‘besar’, ‘banyak’, ‘sering’ atau sebaliknya ‘amat jarang’. Kejadian yang dikategorikan sebagai ekstrim (extreme event) ada-lah kejadian yang jarang terjadi namun memberi-kan dampak yang besar dan tidak terduga dating-nya. Bencana alam, misalnya gempa bumi, badai, dan banjir besar, adalah contoh kejadian ekstrim di bidang ekologi lingkungan yang bisa membawa dampak besar sosial dan ekonomi. Di negara-negara dimana asuransi sudah menjadi bagian yang tak terpisahkan, kejadian ekstrim seperti ini dapat mengakibatkan klaim asuransi yang sangat besar.

Nilainya bisa mencapai 26% dari seluruh total klaim dalam setahun. Sehingga mau tak mau industri asuransi memberikan perhatian besar atas probabilitas munculnya kejadian ekstrim. Pengetahuan tentang kejadian ekstrim di bidang iklim sangat diperlukan oleh hidrologis, perencana tata kota atau desainer bangunan. Misal, saat akan membangun waduk yang dapat mengantisipasi perubahan iklim sampai 50 bahkan 100 tahun ke depan, diperlukan prediksi terjadinya kejadian ekstrim; seberapa besar atau seberapa sering banjir akan melanda daerah tersebut.

Dalam Statistika, data ekstrim secara sederhana didefinisikan sebagai data yang terletak di ujung distribusi, bisa di ujung kanan atau kiri. Analisa data ekstrim pada dasarnya mengamati kelakuan data di ujung ini. Extreme event theory (EVT) berkembang dengan pesat sejak diperkenalkan oleh Fisher dan Tippet dan diformalkan oleh Gnedenko.

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